The edge may have been taken off Nico Hulkenberg’s qualifying performance by a three-place grid penalty, but the pace of the “in the sweet spot” Haas in Abu Dhabi means the team remains a threat in the battle for sixth in the constructors’ championship with a potential $20million-plus prize money swing at stake.
It is on course to be a bigger draw on Sunday than the actual constructors' title fight, McLaren versus Ferrari, if only because in that duel the team that's ahead in the standings is ahead by a lot more, will have a better position on the grid and looks faster.
Hulkenberg’s penalty drops him from fourth to seventh on the grid, but while the starting position is worse that doesn't change the fact the Haas has been seriously fast this weekend. Dropping behind Alpine spearhead Pierre Gasly, who now starts fifth, is a blow, but Hulkenberg could still prevail in the midfield fight in tomorrow’s race.
This was no 'qualifying special' from Hulkenberg, as although he set a time just 0.291s off pole position (a 0.352% deficit compared to the team’s previous best of 0.605% at Silverstone where he qualified sixth) the midfield-leading pace should translate to the race.
Speaking to Sky Sports F1 after qualifying, Haas team principal Ayao Komatsu said “it’s not like we are making a huge compromise one way or the other” in terms of single-lap versus long-run pace. That’s in line with the team’s approach all season, focusing primarily on ensuring strong stint performance ever since the start of testing.
What’s eye-catching is the speed relative to the front given the position - fourth place - was partly down to the struggles of Red Bull, Mercedes and Charles Leclerc. And there’s every chance team-mate Kevin Magnussen would have produced similar speed given his recent strong form and practice pace, but for picking up damage in Q1 from striking the bollard on the inside of Turn 14 while getting out of the way of Lewis Hamilton’s Mercedes that led to him being knocked out in the second stage of qualifying.
“It was good from lap one, FP1 yesterday,” said Hulkenberg. “The car just felt in the sweet spot for some reason and we felt really strong all weekend long. The track gripped up lap by lap, session by session and we managed to go with that. It was very enjoyable.”
It’s not unusual for the Haas to be quick in 2024, and on average single-lap pace across the season it’s the sixth-fastest car. Where it excelled in Abu Dhabi was in the middle sector, which runs from the approach to the Turn 5 hairpin to just before Turn 9 – a section that largely comprises the two back straights.
A key strength of the Haas all season has been its straightline speed, and that was the case in Abu Dhabi as although it was only third-quickest in the main speed trap behind Red Bull and Williams, it covers those two straights quicker than anyone, with Hulkenberg fastest of all in the middle sector in qualifying.
Hulkenberg didn’t have an answer for that speed, first joking that “I just brake late” and then saying that the team didn’t trim out the car more than usual, adding “good traction, I guess, good exits” as another possible reason. But fundamentally the car is just seriously fast on the straights – gaining time on main midfield rival Gasly’s Alpine when not traction-limited but being quick enough through the corners for that to add up to a better laptime, albeit only by a tenth of a second.
It appears to have a rear wing configuration that works well for the compromises of the Yas Marina circuit, something not all teams have.
That speed on the straights will be a valuable tool in Sunday’s race, where Hulkenberg’s key objective will be to get ahead of Gasly. That will be no easy feat even with the speed of the Haas, given the Alpine upgrade introduced in Austin in October has transformed the A524 into a competitive proposition and Gasly is performing well.
Haas’s performance has also been boosted late in the season by the major upgrade package introduced for the United States Grand Prix, which was its second-largest of 2024 after the one that appeared at Silverstone in July. Haas has scored points in seven of the last eight events and could also have done so at Interlagos but for a disastrous race in the wet for Hulkenberg and Ollie Bearman.
But the battle for sixth isn’t just about the two drivers starting in the top 10, as Hulkenberg likely needs help from Magnussen, who is enjoying a late-season revival after gains made in braking stability, if Haas is to overcome the five-point deficit to Alpine.
Given a tie-breaking Haas victory would only be possible in the most extraordinary circumstances, the team will need to gain six points on Alpine rather than five if it’s to regain sixth place – while also covering RB, which is also in contention but a further eight points behind, with Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson qualifying on the sixth row.
Magnussen has the pace to finish in the points even from 14th on the grid. Alpine’s second driver, debutant Jack Doohan, is down in 17th, having been slowest in qualifying. However, that was a misleading result given his final run was ruined by outlap traffic and he was quick on the first runs in Q1, just a tenth off Gasly. Even so, a points contribution from Doohan on his grand prix debut, even at a track where he’s racked up some mileage in F1 machinery in the past, is a big ask.
Alpine is in a strong position thanks to the points situation, Hulkenberg’s penalty and Gasly’s qualifying performance.
“It’s probably one of the best quali [sessions],” said Gasly. “I felt pretty bad in the car all the free practices, we were outside of the top 10 [in FP2 and FP3] and the car was really not performing well. We spent all the practices changing set-up every run, nothing was really working. And going into quali, we made again some big changes, which didn't bring me any confidence, but in the end big improvements.
“Nico is suddenly in force, which was really impressive. They’ve looked strong all weekend and they clearly had the upper hand on us. I'm very happy to have closed the gap - that was only a tenth in the end, so we're on for a good fight tomorrow.”
With three teams in the hunt, as RB can't be entirely discounted despite lacking the performance to be a threat so far this weekend, this could well go down to the last lap of the race. And to complicate the battle there will be cars from the top-four teams intertwined with it.
With over $10million extra in prize money per position in the constructors’ championship, the midfield battle is set up to be the most dramatic and high-stakes of tomorrow’s race given the sting has been taken out of the tail of the McLaren versus Ferrari fight in qualifying.