Short of locking Alex Palou in a toilet before the race so that he can't start - his words, not ours - Scott McLaughlin will be ruled out of the 2024 IndyCar title fight once the final race of the season gets under way.
So this will be a two-horse race: a showdown between Palou and Will Power at Nashville.
With IndyCar's scoring system offering plenty of points combinations in these kinds of scenarios, we've tried to make the most simple guide possible as to what to expect this weekend and who might win.
The current standings
1 Palou 525
2 Power 492 (-33)
3 McLaughlin 475 (-50)
This story will be updated after qualifying as there's one point available for pole and that might change the outcome if one of Palou or Power grabs it.
What Palou has to do
Power's maximum score is 54 points and in that scenario he'd reach 546 points in total. Palou - on 525 entering the weekend - would therefore need to score 22 points to guarantee his third IndyCar title.
He will do that if he finishes ninth or higher.
A victory offers 50 points, two bonus points are awarded for leading the highest number of laps in the race, one point is given for leading any lap, and one point is given for qualifying on pole.
IndyCar points system
1st 50
2nd 40
3rd 35
4th 32
5th 30
6th 28
7th 26
8th 24
9th 22
10th 20
11th-25th+ 19-5 (points decrease by one per position)
Bonus points
Leading the most laps 2
Leading a lap 1
Pole 1
Where it gets a bit more complicated
If Palou bags a first oval pole, or leads the highest number of laps in the race, don't forget that reduces Power's maximum score.
So if Palou grabs pole, he'd only need 20 points - which he'd get for 10th, or if he finished 11th and led a lap.
If he doesn't get pole but leads the highest number of laps, even with Power scoring the next-highest total available of 52 points (for winning, taking pole and leading a lap) Palou would only need 17 points to seal the title, which he'd get by finishing 13th, because if he's led the most laps he would also get a point for leading a single lap too.
And if Palou's scenario was the same but Power won without taking pole, Palou would then only need to finish 14th as that would secure him the 16 points required on top of three bonus points.
What Power has to do to win
Power heads Palou 3-2 on wins this season, which means if there's a tie-break, Power would win the title. If Palou wins the race at Nashville, that would guarantee him the championship.
Palou will score five points providing he starts the race, which would take him to 530.
So as long as Palou starts the race, Power will trail by 37, 38 or 39 points (depending on whether either of them takes pole). That would mean Power must finish first, second or third, but if he finishes third he would need at least three bonus points across the weekend but possibly all four.
What would guarantee Power the title
- Win and Palou scores 18 points or fewer
- Win with three bonus points and Palou scores 20 or fewer
- Win with four bonus points and Palou scores 21 or fewer
- Second and Palou scores seven or fewer
- Second with one bonus point and Palou scores eight or fewer
- Second with two bonus points and Palou scores nine or fewer
- Second with three bonus points and Palou scores 10 or fewer
- Second with four bonus points and Palou scores 11 or fewer
- Third plus three bonus points and Palou scores five
- Third plus four bonus points and Palou scores six
Any of the above scenarios would either tie or beat Palou's score and in both cases Power would win.
Fourth or lower for Power would give Palou the title regardless as long as Palou starts.
Not to end on a sour note, but for the context of probability it is worth remembering that Palou must finish 10th or worse for Power to pull this off, and that's only happened 12 times in 67 races. Almost all of those times have been due to incidents outside of Palou's control.
What McLaughlin needs to do to win
As you've already read, Palou not starting the race at any point is the only way McLaughlin can win.
Palou's Ganassi team-mate Scott Dixon almost failed to start earlier this season when he stopped on the warm-up laps at Mid-Ohio (with an issue likely connected to the hybrid system), but he got going halfway through the race and was able to avoid non-scoring.
And the championship battle is only this close because Palou himself had a battery issue at the most recent race at Milwaukee and only finished 19th, after stopping on the warm-up lap also.
It's not out of the question that a repeat happens, but even Palou just getting the car to run for a single lap at any stage of the race would rule McLaughlin out.
So an injury or illness seems the only possible likelihood of Palou non-scoring (and everyone hopes that's not the case).
Yeah so that means if I lock Alex in a porta potty pre race I’m a chance. https://t.co/e9mfbKv92W
— Scott McLaughlin (@smclaughlin93) September 8, 2024
If Palou did fail to register a lap somehow, here's what McLaughlin needs - bearing in mind he'd have four wins and therefore win a tie-break versus Penske team-mate Power:
- Win and Power scores 34 points or fewer
- Win with two bonus points and Power scores 35 or fewer
- Win with three bonus points and Power scores 36 or fewer
- Win with four bonus points and Power scores 37 or fewer
Palou must not start the race in all scenarios here
What can we take from the track?
Predicting who might come out on top would be easier at a familiar venue, but actually the series has moved from its downtown street track of the last three years to the Superspeedway north-east of Nashville.
Pato O'Ward told The Race IndyCar Podcast that the track reminded him of Texas, and a lot of drivers are excited to race on the tri-oval.
NASCAR has raced at Nashville recently but that told us little in the similar case of Iowa, where NASCAR was fantastic and IndyCar…wasn't, after a pre-season repave.
The Nashville oval hasn't been on the calendar since 2008 - Dixon won the last three races there but few others have competed on it - so the recent test is our only thing to go on.
The rough concrete surface seems to be similar to that which IndyCar raced on 16 years ago, but a lot of how the track races will depend on how much downforce is allowed and which tyres Firestone elects to bring.
The previous two IndyCar oval races have been strong, but Iowa was less so, and a lot of the problems IndyCar is dealing with is balancing a package of tyres and downforce which creates good racing on any given track.
That's especially the case with the added weight of the hybrid unit coming in mid-season, which means the series and tyre supplier have less data to go on than in previous seasons at the tracks it's visited before.
For only the second time in IndyCar on an oval, the teams and drivers will have to use two compounds of tyre this weekend with a hard and soft available, providing some uncertainty.
Do the stats tell us anything?
The first thing they tell us is that it's a shame for McLaughlin he's not in a better points position.
His average qualifying performance on ovals this year is a staggering 1.33, and his average finish is 3.5. He's way out in front in most stats columns on ovals this year.
As for the two more likely title candidates, despite Palou regularly being discussed as having some sort of weakness on ovals, that's just a lazy observation that stems from the fact he's yet to win on one.
He has a better average finish on ovals versus Power not just this season but since Palou came to IndyCar in 2020. And Power's Penske team has dominated on ovals in that time.
Palou vs Power in 2024
Oval qualifying
3 Power 7.17
8 Palou 8.17
Points per oval race
6 Power 26.17
7 Palou 25.67
Oval finish
5 Palou 9.67
12 Power 12.17
Palou vs Power on ovals since 2020
Average finish
Palou 10.12
Power 11.08
Points per race
Palou 27.42
Power 26.35
It's also worth noting that only once in the last 10 years has the person leading the championship heading into the finale not won the title, when Scott Dixon overturned Juan Pablo Montoya's lead in that 2015 Sonoma decider.
Whatever happens, we've got the two best teams in IndyCar and two drivers who deserve a third title, and another who has definitely performed at the level to win his first, too.
For Palou, he'd be the second-youngest driver after Sam Hornish Jr (2001, 2002, 2006) to win three, the first since Dario Franchitti (2009-11) to win back-to-back titles, and it would be the first since the birth of his daughter Lucia.
Power would be the first Penske driver born outside of the US to give Roger Penske three titles, and only Rick Mears and Hornish have managed the treble.
McLaughlin would reach new heights as a treble Australian Supercars champion who took just four years to go from no open-wheel experience at this level to conquering it.
Whoever wins will be a worthy winner.